Zu wenig Wettbewerb? Zu Stand und Entwicklung der Genauigkeit Makroökonomischer Prognosen

Abstract

Despite manifold efforts, accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts has not improved since the 1970s. Therefore, (some) economists demand ``more competition'' among forecasting insti­ tutions, hoping that allocative efficiency of market solutions holds in the field of macro­ economic forecasts, too. However, forecasts are very special information goods: they show some similarities with public goods, their accuracy as well as their general quality is hard to measure, past performance is no guide to future success. Theoretical deliberations do not reveal any clear indications for improvements via ``more competition''. This result is sup­ ported by an empirical analysis of selected national markets for macroeconomic forecasts. Neither the number of forecasters nor the ratio of profit to non­profit institutions showed a positive impact on forecasting accuracy. Though the authors are sceptical that at present macroeconomic forecasts have much room for improvement, they offer some proposals on how to increase competition in this field. JEL Classification: D4, D83, E01, E3