Authors: Pflaumer, Peter
Title: How Migration can Contribute to Achieving a Stationary Population
Language (ISO): en
Abstract: Methods from mathematics of finance and demography are presented in order to investigate the influence of migration on the long-term population development. Methods from mathematics of finance do not take the age structure of a population into consideration and can therefore only be used as an approximation. The less the age structures in question deviate from those of stable populations, the more exact the approximation will be. In the empirical section quantitative measures for population policy are described and analyzed using the population of Germany and of the world as examples. The long-term goal of quantitative population policy is zero growth. Whereas in less developed countries, this goal can be achieved for the most part only by a reduction of fertility, it is possible in more developed countries with below-replacement fertility to achieve stationarity by means of immigration. Under the assumptions made here, Germany would have to take in between 350.000 and 500.000 immigrants each year for the population to remain at the present level. Immigration has demographic consequences for the age structure and the composition of the population which will be described at the end.
Subject Headings: Population Projection
Population Growth
Mathematics of Finance
Leslie Model
Issue Date: 1994-08
Citation: Paper presented at the Fifth International Conference on Statistical Methods for the Environmental Sciences, The International Environmetrics Society (TIES), held in Burlington, Ontario, Canada, August 12-15, 1994
Appears in Collections:Datenanalyse

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
PflaumerMigration.pdf1 PDF-Datei1.25 MBAdobe PDFView/Open

This item is protected by original copyright

All resources in the repository are protected by copyright.