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dc.contributor.authorHeilemann, Ullrichde
dc.date.accessioned2004-12-06T18:41:23Z-
dc.date.available2004-12-06T18:41:23Z-
dc.date.issued2003de
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2003/4993-
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.17877/DE290R-2696-
dc.description.abstractThe major focus of this paper is to determine whether the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts has improved over time. We examine 1-year-ahead forecasts of real GDP and inflation for 1967 to 2001 made by three major German forecasting groups and the OECD. We examine the accuracy of the forecasts over the entire period and in three sub-periods. We conclude that, with some exceptions, the errors of the German forecasters were similar to those of their US and UK counterparts. While the absolute size of the forecast errors has declined, this is not the case for relative accuracy. A benchmark comparison of these predictions with the ex post forecasts of a macroeconometric model indicates that the quality of the growth forecasts can be improved but that the expected increase in accuracy may not be substantial.en
dc.format.extent133448 bytes-
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf-
dc.language.isoende
dc.publisherUniversitätsbibliothek Dortmundde
dc.subjectforecast evaluationsen
dc.subjectmacroeconomic forecastingen
dc.subjectaccuracy limitsen
dc.subject.ddc310de
dc.titleHas the accuracy of german macroeconomic forecasts improved?en
dc.typeTextde
dc.type.publicationtypereporten
dcterms.accessRightsopen access-
Appears in Collections:Sonderforschungsbereich (SFB) 475

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