Data Analysis for Firm Valuation: Stochastic Modeling of Casino Hold Percentages Using Random Walk and ARIMA

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dc.contributor.authorJöckel, Karl-Heinz
dc.contributor.authorPflaumer, Peter
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-08T08:37:12Z
dc.date.available2025-04-08T08:37:12Z
dc.date.issued2024-10
dc.description.abstractThis paper presents a stochastic approach to partial firm valuation by analyzing casino hold percentages using Random Walk and ARMA(1,1) models. We establish a mathematical framework that models future cash flows as influenced by current values and random disturbances, enabling us to derive variance formulas for discounted cash flows. By treating casino hold percentages as stochastic variables, we apply the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method to evaluate the enterprise value of a casino table under both autocorrelated and non-autocorrelated scenarios. Our findings highlight the critical impact of temporal dependencies on risk assessments, illustrating how ARMA models improve accuracy in variance estimation. To demonstrate the practical application, we analyze monthly hold percentages data from casino games, spanning 2004 to 2024 in Nevada. This research offers valuable insights for financial decision-makers, not only in the gaming industry, emphasizing the importance of considering random fluctuations and advanced modeling techniques in (partial) firm valuation.en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2003/43601
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.17877/DE290R-25434
dc.language.isoen
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/
dc.subjectPartial Enterprise Valuationen
dc.subjectBlackjacken
dc.subjectRouletteen
dc.subjectData Miningen
dc.subjectRisk Assessmenten
dc.subjectCasino Industryen
dc.subjectTemporal Dependenciesen
dc.subjectRandom Walken
dc.subjectARMA Modelingen
dc.subject.ddc310
dc.subject.rswkUnternehmensbewertungde
dc.subject.rswkARMA-Modellde
dc.subject.rswkIrrfahrtsproblemde
dc.subject.rswkZeitabhängigkeitde
dc.subject.rswkGlücksspielindustriede
dc.subject.rswkRisikoanalysede
dc.subject.rswkData Miningen
dc.subject.rswkRoulettede
dc.subject.rswkSiebzehn und Vierde
dc.titleData Analysis for Firm Valuation: Stochastic Modeling of Casino Hold Percentages Using Random Walk and ARIMAen
dc.typeText
dc.type.publicationtypeConferencePaper
dcterms.accessRightsopen access
eldorado.secondarypublicationfalse

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