Pflaumer, Peter2025-09-212025-09-212025-09http://hdl.handle.net/2003/4397810.17877/DE290R-25746This paper presents a unified analysis of gold price dynamics by integrating two complementary studies: one applying the geometric Random Walk (GRW) model with ARIMA techniques, and the other investigating the relationship between gold prices and global GDP using ARIMAX models. Together, these approaches offer a comprehensive understanding of gold price behavior, uncertainty, and predictive modeling from 1970 to 2024, with forecasts to 2030.enhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Gold prices,UncertaintyStatistical ModelingExpert PredictionsGeometric Random Walk with DriftGold Price ReturnsGold Price Forecastingglobal GDPARIMAXARIMA310ConferenceProceedings