Confidence intervals for combined univariate economic forecasts

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorArgac, Dogan
dc.contributor.authorHartung, Joachim
dc.date.accessioned2009-02-02T10:42:25Z
dc.date.available2009-02-02T10:42:25Z
dc.date.issued2009-02-02T10:42:25Z
dc.description.abstractResearch in combining of economic forecasts made by several institutes on the same economic variable has focused on estimation using mainly regression based methods, hoping that the combined forecast will be improved by incorporating the expert opinions of the institutes. We provide confidence intervals on the combined forecast using analysis of variance techniques. A scoring of the individual institutes is proposed by taking into account the historical performance of the institutes in forecasting the quantity in question. It is remarkable that no information is needed about the individual precision or the variance of the forecasts.en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2003/26012
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.17877/DE290R-399
dc.language.isoen
dc.subjectCombining informationen
dc.subjectExpert opinionen
dc.subjectHeteroscedastic variancesen
dc.subject.ddc310
dc.titleConfidence intervals for combined univariate economic forecastsen
dc.typeText
dc.type.publicationtypepreprint
dcterms.accessRightsopen access

Files

Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Forecast.pdf
Size:
166.43 KB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.94 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download

Collections

Lehrstuhl Statistik mit Anwendungen im Bereich der Ingenieurwissenschaften