Refining Mortality Projections at Advanced Ages: Evaluating the Significance of Wittstein's Mortality Law

Abstract

Age-specific mortality rates for semi-supercentenarians and supercentenarians play a pivotal role in comprehending longevity and population dynamics at advanced ages. In this study, we introduce a modified Wittstein Model, offering an alternative to the conventional S-shaped curve models used in mortality forecasting. The Wittstein Model, originally formulated by Theodor Wittstein, has been adapted to suit contemporary contexts. Utilizing life table data for German women from 2019/2021, we project age-specific mortality rates, construct life tables commencing from age 100, and conduct a sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of model parameters on mortality patterns. The sensitivity analysis unveils the influence of parameter values on the shape of age-specific mortality rates. This study contributes to research in mortality forecasting, with a specific focus on semi-supercentenarians and supercentenarians, shedding light on an understudied population segment. Accurate projections carry profound implications for public health, healthcare planning, and social policy. Further research should explore the model's applicability in different contexts, providing a deeper understanding of mortality patterns at advanced ages. As the empirical database of centenarians expands, the model is expected to enhance its precision and reliability in forecasting age-specific mortality rates at advanced ages.