Has the accuracy of german macroeconomic forecasts improved?

dc.contributor.author	Heilemann, Ullrich	de
dc.date.accessioned	2004-12-06T18:41:23Z
dc.date.available	2004-12-06T18:41:23Z
dc.date.issued	2003	de
dc.description.abstract	The major focus of this paper is to determine whether the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts has improved over time. We examine 1-year-ahead forecasts of real GDP and inflation for 1967 to 2001 made by three major German forecasting groups and the OECD. We examine the accuracy of the forecasts over the entire period and in three sub-periods. We conclude that, with some exceptions, the errors of the German forecasters were similar to those of their US and UK counterparts. While the absolute size of the forecast errors has declined, this is not the case for relative accuracy. A benchmark comparison of these predictions with the ex post forecasts of a macroeconometric model indicates that the quality of the growth forecasts can be improved but that the expected increase in accuracy may not be substantial.	en
dc.format.extent	133448 bytes
dc.format.mimetype	application/pdf
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/2003/4993
dc.identifier.uri	http://dx.doi.org/10.17877/DE290R-2696
dc.language.iso	en	de
dc.publisher	Universitätsbibliothek Dortmund	de
dc.subject	forecast evaluations	en
dc.subject	macroeconomic forecasting	en
dc.subject	accuracy limits	en
dc.subject.ddc	310	de
dc.title	Has the accuracy of german macroeconomic forecasts improved?	en
dc.type	Text	de
dc.type.publicationtype	report	en
dcterms.accessRights	open access

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