“The mother of all political problems?” On asylum seekers and elections

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dc.contributor.authorTomberg, Lukas
dc.contributor.authorSmith Stegen, Karen
dc.contributor.authorVance, Colin
dc.date.accessioned2020-11-25T11:04:56Z
dc.date.available2020-11-25T11:04:56Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.description.abstractAs immigration to Europe has increased, so has support for extremist parties. While many studies have examined the effect of immigration on election outcomes, few have probed the effect of asylum seekers – those fleeing strife and persecution – on voting, nor has there been much research on the mediating role of local economic conditions. Drawing on county level panel data from Germany, our study fills both gaps. We find that economic circumstances, as measured by the unemployment rate and the level of disposable income, condition voters’ responses to the presence of asylum seekers, but the effects for parties on the far right and left diverge markedly. Under economic prosperity, immigration increases support on both sides of the political spectrum. As economic conditions worsen, however, the effect of asylum seekers on the vote share for the far right remains stable, but weakens for the left, eventually becoming negative. This divergence – which has not yet been reported in the literature – suggests that an influx of asylum seekers, particularly when coupled with an economic downturn, could tilt a political system rightwards. From a policy perspective, these results suggest that heterogeneity arising from local economic conditions has important implications for the regional allocation of asylum seekers.en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2003/39817
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.17877/DE290R-21708
dc.language.isoende
dc.relation.ispartofseriesDiscussion Paper / SFB823;31/2020
dc.subjectasylum seekersen
dc.subjectfractional responseen
dc.subjectvoting outcomesen
dc.subjectimmigrationen
dc.subject.ddc310
dc.subject.ddc330
dc.subject.ddc620
dc.title“The mother of all political problems?” On asylum seekers and electionsen
dc.typeTextde
dc.type.publicationtypeworkingPaperde
dcterms.accessRightsopen access
eldorado.secondarypublicationfalsede

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