An Evaluation of Forecasting Methods and Forecast Combination Methods in Goods Management Systems

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Date

1999

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Publisher

Universitätsbibliothek Dortmund

Abstract

In this paper we use 4 different time series models to forecast sales in a goods management system. We use a variety of forecast combining techniques and measure the forecast quality by applying symmetric and asymmetric forecast quality measures. Simple, rank-, and criteria-based combining methods lead to an improvement of the individual time series models.

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Keywords

ARX forecasts, asymmetric loss function, combination of forecasts, dynamic linear model, goods management system

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