Explainable adaptation of time series forecasting

Abstract

A time series is a collection of data points captured over time, commonly found in many fields such as healthcare, manufacturing, and transportation. Accurately predicting the future behavior of a time series is crucial for decision-making, and several Machine Learning (ML) models have been applied to solve this task. However, changes in the time series, known as concept drift, can affect model generalization to future data, requiring thus online adaptive forecasting methods. This thesis aims to extend the State-of-the-Art (SoA) in the ML literature for time series forecasting by developing novel online adaptive methods. The first part focuses on online time series forecasting, including a framework for selecting time series variables and developing ensemble models that are adaptive to changes in time series data and model performance. Empirical results show the usefulness and competitiveness of the developed methods and their contribution to the explainability of both model selection and ensemble pruning processes. Regarding the second part, the thesis contributes to the literature on online ML model-based quality prediction for three Industry 4.0 applications: NC-milling, bolt installation in the automotive industry, and Surface Mount Technology (SMT) in electronics manufacturing. The thesis shows how process simulation can be used to generate additional knowledge and how such knowledge can be integrated efficiently into the ML process. The thesis also presents two applications of explainable model-based quality prediction and their impact on smart industry practices.