Zu wenig Wettbewerb? Zu Stand und Entwicklung der Genauigkeit Makroökonomischer Prognosen

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorHeilemann, Ullrich
dc.contributor.authorKlinger, Sabine
dc.date.accessioned2005-07-07T12:27:38Z
dc.date.available2005-07-07T12:27:38Z
dc.date.issued2005
dc.description.abstractDespite manifold efforts, accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts has not improved since the 1970s. Therefore, (some) economists demand ``more competition'' among forecasting insti­ tutions, hoping that allocative efficiency of market solutions holds in the field of macro­ economic forecasts, too. However, forecasts are very special information goods: they show some similarities with public goods, their accuracy as well as their general quality is hard to measure, past performance is no guide to future success. Theoretical deliberations do not reveal any clear indications for improvements via ``more competition''. This result is sup­ ported by an empirical analysis of selected national markets for macroeconomic forecasts. Neither the number of forecasters nor the ratio of profit to non­profit institutions showed a positive impact on forecasting accuracy. Though the authors are sceptical that at present macroeconomic forecasts have much room for improvement, they offer some proposals on how to increase competition in this field. JEL Classification: D4, D83, E01, E3en
dc.format.extent160500 bytes
dc.format.extent664238 bytes
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/postscript
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2003/21511
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.17877/DE290R-6749
dc.language.isode
dc.subjectCompetitionen
dc.subjectEmpirical macroeconomicsen
dc.subjectForecasting accuracyen
dc.subject.ddc004
dc.titleZu wenig Wettbewerb? Zu Stand und Entwicklung der Genauigkeit Makroökonomischer Prognosende
dc.typeTexten
dc.type.publicationtypereporten
dcterms.accessRightsopen access

Files

Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
tr16-05.ps
Size:
648.67 KB
Format:
Postscript Files
Download
Thumbnail Image
Name:
21370tr16-05_Adobe5.pdf
Size:
156.74 KB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
DNB
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.92 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download

Collections

Sonderforschungsbereich (SFB) 475