Zu wenig Wettbewerb? Zu Stand und Entwicklung der Genauigkeit Makroökonomischer Prognosen
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Date
2005
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Abstract
Despite manifold efforts, accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts has not improved since the
1970s. Therefore, (some) economists demand ``more competition'' among forecasting insti
tutions, hoping that allocative efficiency of market solutions holds in the field of macro
economic forecasts, too. However, forecasts are very special information goods: they show
some similarities with public goods, their accuracy as well as their general quality is hard
to measure, past performance is no guide to future success. Theoretical deliberations do not
reveal any clear indications for improvements via ``more competition''. This result is sup
ported by an empirical analysis of selected national markets for macroeconomic forecasts.
Neither the number of forecasters nor the ratio of profit to nonprofit institutions showed a
positive impact on forecasting accuracy. Though the authors are sceptical that at present
macroeconomic forecasts have much room for improvement, they offer some proposals on
how to increase competition in this field.
JEL Classification: D4, D83, E01, E3
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Keywords
Competition, Empirical macroeconomics, Forecasting accuracy