“We’re rolling”

dc.contributor.authorMüller, Henrik
dc.contributor.authorRieger, Jonas
dc.contributor.authorHornig, Nico
dc.date.accessioned2021-03-25T13:44:28Z
dc.date.available2021-03-25T13:44:28Z
dc.date.issued2021-03
dc.description.abstractIn this paper, we present a new dynamic topic modeling method to build stable models and consistent time series. We call this new method RollingLDA. It has the potential to overcome several difficulties researchers, who use unsupervised probabilistic topic models, have grappled with: namely the problem of arbitrary selection, which is aggravated when models are to be updated with new sequences of data. RollingLDA is derived by combining the LDAPrototype approach (Rieger, Jentsch and Rahnenführer, 2020) with an implementation that uses preceding LDA results as an initialization for subsequent quarters, while allowing topics to change over time. Squaring dual-process theory, employed in Behavioral Economics (Kahneman, 2011), with the evolving theory of Economic Narratives (Shiller, 2017), RollingLDA is applied to the measurement of economic uncertainty. The new version of our Uncertainty Perception Indicator (UPI), based on a newspaper corpus of 2.8 million German newspaper articles, published between 1 January 2001 and 31 December 2020, proves indeed capable of detecting an uncertainty narrative. The narrative, derived from the thorough quantitative-qualitative analysis of a key-topic of our model, can be interpreted as collective memory of past uncertainty shocks, their causes and the societal reactions to them. The uncertainty narrative can be seen as a collective intangible cultural asset (Haskel and Westlake, 2017), accumulated in the past, informing the present and potentially the future, as the story is being updated and partly overwritten by new experiences. This concept opens up a fascinating new field for future research. We would like to encourage researchers to use our data and are happy to share it on request.en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2003/40097
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.17877/DE290R-21974
dc.language.isoende
dc.relation.ispartofseriesDoCMA Working Paper;6en
dc.subjectuncertaintyen
dc.subjectnarrativesen
dc.subjectlatent dirichlet allocationen
dc.subjectbusiness cyclesen
dc.subjectCovid-19en
dc.subjecttext miningen
dc.subjectcomputational methodsen
dc.subjectbehavioral economicsen
dc.subject.ddc004
dc.subject.ddc070
dc.subject.ddc310
dc.title“We’re rolling”en
dc.title.alternativeOur Uncertainty Perception Indicator (UPI) in Q4 2020: introducing RollingLDA, a New Method for the Measurement of Evolving Economic Narrativesen
dc.typeTextde
dc.type.publicationtypeworkingPaperde
dcterms.accessRightsopen access
eldorado.secondarypublicationfalsede

Files

Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name:
DoCMA_WP_6.pdf
Size:
655.28 KB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
DNB
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
4.85 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description: