Gold Price Dynamics: Geometric Random Walk and ARIMAX Models

Abstract

This paper presents a unified analysis of gold price dynamics by integrating two complementary studies: one applying the geometric Random Walk (GRW) model with ARIMA techniques, and the other investigating the relationship between gold prices and global GDP using ARIMAX models. Together, these approaches offer a comprehensive understanding of gold price behavior, uncertainty, and predictive modeling from 1970 to 2024, with forecasts to 2030.