Gold Price Dynamics: Geometric Random Walk and ARIMAX Models
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Date
2025-09
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Abstract
This paper presents a unified analysis of gold price dynamics by integrating two complementary studies: one applying the geometric Random Walk (GRW) model with ARIMA techniques, and the other investigating the relationship between gold prices and global GDP using ARIMAX models. Together, these approaches offer a comprehensive understanding of gold price behavior,
uncertainty, and predictive modeling from 1970 to 2024, with forecasts to 2030.
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Gold prices,, Uncertainty, Statistical Modeling, Expert Predictions, Geometric Random Walk with Drift, Gold Price Returns, Gold Price Forecasting, global GDP, ARIMAX, ARIMA