Authors: Berndgen-Kaiser, Andrea
Editors: Beilein, Andreas
Kadono, Yukihiro
Polívka, Jan
Reicher, Christa
Title: Prospects for German Post-War Single Family Home Neighborhoods. Case Studies in Five Western German Federal States
Language (ISO): en
Abstract: Germany is one of the Western European countries with the most apparent effects of demographic change (United Nations 2011). Its population has been declining since 2003 and, under the assumption that this trend will continue, could decrease by a further five million by 2030 (Statistisches Bundesamt 2009). Several rural peripheral regions that are additionally affected by internal migration losses are expected to suffer population declines of up to 30 percent. Considering Germans’ ongoing preference for detached housing and the low proportion of detached and semi-detached houses in the overall housing stock in Germany, it was long assumed that the demand for houses would remain stable. However, a closer look at foreseeable developments reveals a declining housing demand, driven primarily by demographic factors and internal migration. This could lead to a fall in demand for older detached and semi-detached houses. Currently, there are only a few studies in Germany that look specifically at post-war housing estates; therefore, it is difficult to empirically verify the assumptions above. Against this background, this research project aimed at finding the reasons and defining the characteristics of a possible negative development of mature post-war housing estates in western Germany. As a first step, the research team conducted a risk assessment at the district level, analyzing supply and demand variables to identify districts with a high probability of a future oversupply of older houses. The results show that the risk of housing oversupply 146 Maturity and Regeneration of Residential Areas is confined almost exclusively to suburban and rural areas. The main empirical sources were the 29 local case studies in 14 municipalities carried out in different spatial settings (from urban to rural) in various western German federal states (Länder). Case studies were used because the large amount of data required to objectively assess the problem was not available in the official statistics at particular state and district levels. The case studies provided insight into local population structures, building uses and the availability of public amenities. Qualitative interviews with local authorities and estate agents were used to record the subjective assessment of possible developments. A standardized survey in ten selected areas provided insight into residents’ views, concerns and wishes. In contrast to the widespread opinion that detached housing estates in Germany fall outside the scope of public intervention, the results of the empirical surveys revealed a wide range of policies and measures for action. Moreover, the research results underline the importance of housing stock-oriented management as a way of enhancing the future development of the post-war housing stock.
Subject Headings: family homes
post-war Germany
Issue Date: 2016-12
Citation: Berndgen-Kaiser, A. (2016): Prospects for German Single Family Post-War Neighbohoods. Case Studies in Five Western German Federal States. In: Kadono; Y.; Beilein, A.; Polívka, J.; Reicher, C. (Eds.): Maturity and Regeneration of Residential Areas in Metropolitan Regions - Trends, Interpretations and Strategies in Japan and Germany. city & region, vol. 2. Dortmund, pp. 146-168.
Appears in Collections:Maturity and Regeneration of Residential Areas in Metropolitan Regions - Trends, Interpretations and Strategies in Japan and Germany

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