A multi-scale and GIS-based investigation of climate change effects on urban climate and building energy demand for the city of Stuttgart

Abstract

This paper presents a multi-scale and GIS-based investigation approach whose goal is to quantify the consequences of a climate change scenario (2041-2050) on the energy demand of buildings by comparison to a past scenario (1991-2000) applied to the city of Stuttgart. Energy simulations are made at building scale while taking into account the surrounding urban microclimates. The investigation method combines 1) numerical modelling using TEB and TRNSYS, 2) design of experiments (DOE) statistical analysis for data pre- and post-processing, and 3) GIS techniques. The outcome of the study is the heating and cooling energy demands summed up at city block level and displayed in 2D GIS maps. The results reveal that i) warmer urban microclimates occur, ii) with less heating and more cooling of buildings required if future versus past reference climate data are used. Spatial differences in the results within the city are found depending on the geometrical and thermal characteristics of the individual city blocks and buildings.