Potential impact assessment of climate-related hazards on urban public health services: interaction of changing climate-related hazards and urban development in the future, Khon Kaen City, Thailand

Abstract

Current understanding of the interactions between the future urban development change and climate change in the local context, considering infrastructure operation & functionality, is still primitive, especially in public health services. This study offers a climate-resilient operationalization framework for urban public health services considering the interaction between urban development change and climate change across scales, the so-called Health Integrative Climate Resilience and Adaptation Future (HICRAF). HICRAF integrates collaborative scenario planning and composite indicators developed based on the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) 's climate risk concept. It combines a mixed-methods approach of quantitative and qualitative techniques and demonstrates how different methods and scales (spatial and temporal) can be linked and create new knowledge on cascading risk patterns in a medium-sized city with a universal health care coverage setting; Khon Kaen city, Thailand. The results show that the approach allows local public health care to operationalize their potential impact and climate-resilient targets in a forward-looking manner with multiple service operation aspects. The scenario assessment outcomes prove that public health devotions can help their operation and functionality fail-safe when confronting future climatic and non-climatic challenges. However, achieving climate-resilient targets requires sectoral integration with urban development and health determining domains. Hence, more integrated spatial planning of public health services and critically revisiting conventional cost-benefit assessments on public health infrastructure investment are key entry points for creating climate-resilient urban health services. In addition to addressing missing links between global climate trajectories and local climate adaptation scenarios that involved stakeholders' normative judgements and cross-sectoral interests. HICRAF highlights a clear constraint of applying a purely place-based concept on climate vulnerability/risk assessment in reflecting the realities of network operation and functionality of urban systems. Thus, the co-existing paradox between the place-based and network-based concepts should be investigated further in climate vulnerability/risk assessment studies. Furthermore, exploration and disputation of HICRAF and its composite indicators with a wider scale and diversified settings are invited to enhance its robustness and universality.