Prediction intervals for the failure time of prestressed concrete beams
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Date
2016
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Abstract
The aim is the prediction of the failure time of prestressed concrete beams under low
cyclic load. Since the experiments last long for low load, accelerated failure tests with higher
load are conducted. However, the accelerated tests are expensive so that only few tests are
available. To obtain a more precise failure time prediction, the additional information of
time points of breakage of tension wires is used. These breakage time points are modeled
by a nonlinear birth process. This allows not only point prediction of a critical number
of broken tension wires but also prediction intervals which express the uncertainty of the
prediction.