Estimating nonlinear effects of fiscal policy using quantile regression methods

dc.contributor.author	Linnemann, Ludger
dc.contributor.author	Winkler, Roland
dc.date.accessioned	2015-01-29T10:25:51Z
dc.date.available	2015-01-29T10:25:51Z
dc.date.issued	2015
dc.description.abstract	We use quantile regression methods to estimate the effects of government spending shocks on output and unemployment rates. This allows to uncover nonlinear effects of fiscal policy by letting the parameters of either vector autoregressive models or local projection regressions vary across the distribution of macroeconomic activity. In quarterly US data, we find that fiscal output multipliers are notably larger if GDP is predicted to be below trend. Conversely, higher government spending appears to significantly lower unemployment only if the unemployment rate is in the largest deciles of its conditional distribution.	en
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/2003/33828
dc.identifier.uri	http://dx.doi.org/10.17877/DE290R-6906
dc.language.iso	en	de
dc.relation.ispartofseries	Discussion Paper / SFB 823;3/2015	en
dc.subject	fiscal multiplier	en
dc.subject	quantile regressions	en
dc.subject	nonlinear effects of fiscal policy	en
dc.subject.ddc	310
dc.subject.ddc	330
dc.subject.ddc	620
dc.title	Estimating nonlinear effects of fiscal policy using quantile regression methods	en
dc.type	Text	de
dc.type.publicationtype	workingPaper	de
dcterms.accessRights	open access

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