Cascading effects analysis: methodological reflections for managing compound urban crises

Abstract

Urban crises rarely occur in isolation but emerge as interconnected disruptions across space, time, and institutions. The COVID-19 pandemic intensified existing vulnerabilities and intersected with other crises, producing cascading effects. This paper asks how cascading effects analysis can be used as a planning-oriented method to map and govern compound urban crises, drawing on case studies from Cape Town, Dortmund, and São Paulo. In Cape Town, South Africa, the pandemic intersected with high HIV and tuberculosis rates and load shedding, straining health and social services. In Dortmund, Germany, COVID-19’s economic disruptions overlapped with an energy price crisis, while in São Paulo, Brazil, lockdowns coincided with increased gender-based violence and constrained access to support services. Together, these cases show how pre-existing socio-political and economic conditions shape the impacts of crises, exacerbating marginalization and deepening systemic inequalities. Cascading effects analysis is used to visualize and address interdependencies in compound crises, helping planners move beyond sectoral silos, identify key intervention points for crisis management, and support more resilient and equitable urban planning. The paper calls for a methodological shift in urban crisis research toward tools that better communicate systemic risk and bridge risk assessment, social vulnerability, and planning practice.