Tickt sie, die demografische Zeitbombe?
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Date
2005-12-15
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Lucius & Lucius Verlagsgesellschaft
Abstract
Die bekannten demografischen Trends hinterlassen beim Arbeitskräfteangebot deutliche Spuren: Während in den kommenden 10 bis 15 Jahren noch mit einem nur leicht rückläufigen Arbeitskräftepotenzial zu rechnen ist, nimmt es danach derart ab, dass weder eine höhere Erwerbstätigkeit von Frauen oder Älteren noch Zuwanderung im "normalen" Umfang diesen Trend kompensieren können. Vor allem werden künftig jüngere Arbeitskräfte fehlen. Auch die Arbeitskräftenachfrage wird von Bevölkerungsrückgang und Alterung berührt, die Effekte sind jedoch vergleichsweise unsicher und werden durch andere Faktoren, z.B. Globalisierung, weitgehend überlagert. Relativ sicher dürfte sein, dass sich die Struktur der Arbeitskräftenachfrage im Kontext einer sich wandelnden Wirtschaftsstruktur ändern wird. Alles in allem werden beide Marktseiten künftig näher beisammen liegen, aber gleichzeitig nehmen die strukturellen Probleme zu, die sich aufgrund der widersprechenden Tendenzen von Anforderungen und angebotenen Qualifikationen ergeben.
The effects of the population trends on labour supply will be twofold: a shrinking and an ageing working population. Within the next 10 to 15 years the size of the labour force will only decline moderately, but this process will speed up much thereafter. Neither increasing participation rates nor "normal" immigration flows can fully compensate the effect of the decreasing size of the working-age population on labour supply. One likely result of this development will be a shortage of younger workers. Demographic trends are also likely to have some effects on labour demand. But these effects are much less ascertain than those on the supply side and they are of less degree than some other factors, like globalisation. There is however some evidence that the demographic shift will change the structure of labour demand. Optimistically one can conclude that the difference between labour supply and labour demand will decrease. The bad news is that labour market problems will not ease automatically. A rising demand for highly qualified workers is faced with an ageing labour force.
The effects of the population trends on labour supply will be twofold: a shrinking and an ageing working population. Within the next 10 to 15 years the size of the labour force will only decline moderately, but this process will speed up much thereafter. Neither increasing participation rates nor "normal" immigration flows can fully compensate the effect of the decreasing size of the working-age population on labour supply. One likely result of this development will be a shortage of younger workers. Demographic trends are also likely to have some effects on labour demand. But these effects are much less ascertain than those on the supply side and they are of less degree than some other factors, like globalisation. There is however some evidence that the demographic shift will change the structure of labour demand. Optimistically one can conclude that the difference between labour supply and labour demand will decrease. The bad news is that labour market problems will not ease automatically. A rising demand for highly qualified workers is faced with an ageing labour force.
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Keywords
demographic change, labour supply, labour demand, demographic ageing, Alterung, Arbeitskräfteangebot, Arbeitskräftenachfrage, Demografischer Wandel