**Eldorado**

Resources for and from Research, Teaching and Studying

### Recent Submissions

As of late 2008, the steady decline of U. S. crude oil production over the last decades was reversed by the increased adoption of the hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) technology. Adapting the supply-side model proposed by Kaufmann et al. (2004) to assess OPEC’s ability to inﬂuence real oil prices, this paper investigates the effect of the increase in U. S. oil production due to fracking on world oil prices. Among our key results obtained from (dynamic) OLS estimations, there is a statistical...

In this study we use import penetration as a proxy for foreign competition in order to empirically analyze (1) the impact of foreign competition on managerial compensation, (2) differences in the impact between Germany and the U.S and (3) whether the impact of import penetration is driven by implied efficiency effects. We use data from the manufacturing industry covering the period from 1984-2010 for Germany respectively 1992-2011 for the U.S and apply system GMM in order to solve potential e...

We consider the problem of designing experiments for the estimation of a target in regression analysis if there is uncertainty about the parametric form of the regression function. A new optimality criterion is proposed, which minimizes the asymptotic mean squared error of the frequentist model averaging estimate by the choice of an experimental design. Necessary conditions for the optimal solution of a locally and Bayesian optimal design problem are established. The results are illustra...

Due to growing concerns about climate change, policy-makers from all around the world establish measures, such as carbon taxes, to lower electricity demand and energy consumption in general. Drawing on household panel data from the German Residential Energy Consumption Survey (GRECS) that span over nine years (2006-2014) and employing the sum of regulated price components as an instrument for the likely endogenous electricity price, we gauge the response of residential electricity deman...

Quasi-arithmetic means contain many other mean value concepts such as the arithmetic, the geometric or the harmonic mean as special cases. Treating quasi-arithmetic means as sequences of mappings from I^n into I (for some real interval I) this paper shows that under mild additional conditions this mapping is uniquely determined by its values on I^2. This extends a well-known result by Huntington [4] where this claim is proven only for special cases.

When analyzing what determines the efficiency of production, regressing efficiency scores estimated by DEA on explanatory variables has much intuitive appeal. Simar and Wilson (2007) show that this na¨ıve two-stage estimation procedure suffers from severe flaws, that render its results, and in particular statistical inference based on them, questionable. At the same time they propose a statistically grounded bootstrap based two-stage estimator that eliminates the above mentioned weaknes...

In this paper we introduce a robust to outliers Wilcoxon change-point testing procedure, for distinguishing between short-range dependent time series with a change in mean at unknown time and stationary long-range dependent time series. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis for L1 near epoch dependent processes and show its consistency under the alternative. The Wilcoxon-type testing procedure similarly as the CUSUM-type testing procedur...

This paper applies new econometric tools to monitor and detect so-called "financial market dislocations", defined as periods in which substantial deviations from arbitrage parities take place. In particular, we focus on deviations from the triangular arbitrage parity for exchange rate triplets. Due to increasing media attention towards mispricing in the market for cryptocurrencies, we include the cryptocurrency Bitcoin in addition to fiat currencies. We do not find evidence for substantial...

Biosimilars are copies of biological medicines that are developed by a competitor after the patent for the originator drug has expired. Extensive clinical trials are required to show therapeutic equivalence between the biosimilar and its reference product before a biosimilar can be sold on the market. However, even after more than 10 years of experience with biosimilars in Europe, there is still some uncertainty if the patients who are already taking the reference product can switch betw...

We propose completely nonparametric methodology to investigate location-scale modelling of two-component mixture cure models, where the responses of interest are only indirectly observable due to the presence of censoring and the presence of so-called long-term survivors that are always censored. We use covariate-localized nonparametric estimators, which depend on a bandwidth sequence, to propose an estimator of the error distribution function that has not been considered before in the litera...

The production of electricity on the basis of renewable energy technologies is a classic example of an impure public good. It is often discriminatively financed by industrial and household consumers, such as in Germany, where the energy-intensive sector benefits from far-reaching exemptions, while all other electricity consumers are forced to bear a higher burden. Based on randomized information treatments in a stated-choice experiment among about 11,000 German households, we explore wh...

Consider the problem of pointwise estimation of f in a multiple isotonic regression model Z = f(X1, ... ,Xd) + ε , where Z is the response variable, f is an unknown non-parametric regression function, which is isotonic with respect to each component, and is the error term. In this article, we investigate the behaviour of the least square estimator of f and establish its asymptotic properties. We generalize the greatest convex minorant characterization of isotonic regression estimator for...

This paper introduces test and estimation procedures for abrupt and gradual changes in the entire jump behaviour of a discretely observed Ito semimartingale. In contrast to existing work we analyse jumps of arbitrary size which are not restricted to a minimum height. Our methods are based on weak convergence of a truncated sequential empirical distribution function of the jump characteristic of the underlying Ito semimartingale. Critical values for the new tests are obtained by a multipl...

Biosimilars are medical products that are developed as copies of already established, large molecule drugs (biologics). For gaining approval, sponsors have to confirm that the proposed biosimilar has the same efficacy and safety as the originator product. This comparability exercise includes also, in most cases, that large clinical trials are conducted in patients. However, even with the evidence gained during the clinical studies, there is still some uncertainty if patients who were alr...

In this paper we propose a new approach for sequential monitoring of a parameter of a d-dimensional time series. We consider a closed-end-method, which is motivated by the likelihood ratio test principle and compare the new method with two alternative procedures. We also incorporate self-normalization such that estimation of the longrun variance is not necessary. We prove that for a large class of testing problems the new detection scheme has asymptotic level a and is consistent. The asy...

This paper considers the problem of testing if a sequence of means (μ t)t=1,...,n of a non-stationary time series (Xt)t=1,...,n is stable in the sense that the di fference of the means μ1 and μt between the initial time t = 1 and any other time is smaller than a given level, that is |μ1 — μt| ≤ c for all t = 1,..., n. A test for hypotheses of this type is developed using a bias corrected monotone rearranged local linear estimator and asymptotic normality of the corresponding test statistic ...

Although public support for renewable energy promotion in Germany is strong, the required power line construction has incited a groundswell of opposition from residents concerned about the impacts on their neighborhoods. This paper evaluates a large randomized one-shot binary-choice experiment to examine the effect of different compensation schemes on the acceptance of new power line construction. Results reveal that community compensations have no bearing on the acceptance level, where...

This paper extends the literature on predatory short selling and bailouts through a joint analysis of the two. We consider a model with informed short sales, as well as uninformed predatory short sales, which can trigger the inefficient liquidation of a firm. We obtain several novel results: A government commitment to bail out insolvent firms with positive probability can increase welfare because it selectively deters predatory short selling without hampering desirable informed short sa...

The issue of determining not only an adequate dose but also a dosing frequency of a drug arises frequently in Phase II clinical trials. This results in the comparison of models which have some parameters in common. Planning such studies based on Bayesian optimal designs offers robustness to our conclusions since these designs, unlike locally optimal designs, are efficient even if the parameters are misspecified. In this paper we develop approximate design theory for Bayesian D-optimality...

Dieser Artikel untersucht auf Basis einer Befragung von mehr als 5.000 Haushaltsvorständen, wie viel sie für Versorgungssicherheit mit Strom zu zahlen bereit sind. Alternativ zur Zahlungsbereitschaft (willingness to pay, WTP) wird auch nach der Bereitschaft gefragt, gegen eine Entschädigungszahlung auf ein gewisses Maß an Versorgungssicherheit zu verzichten (willingness to accept, WTA). In Übereinstimmung mit zahlreichen empirischen Studien finden wir mittlere WTA-Werte, die deutlich übe...

### Collections in this community

#### Sonderforschungsbereich (SFB) 475 [595]

Reduction of Complexity for Multivariate Data Structures

#### Sonderforschungsbereich (SFB) 531 [249]

Design und Management komplexer technischer Prozesse und Systeme mit Methoden der Computational Intelligence

#### Sonderforschungsbereich (SFB) 559 [64]

Modellierung grosser Netze in der Logistik

#### Sonderforschungsbereich (SFB) 823 [465]

Nichtlineare dynamische Modelle in Wirtschaft und Technik

#### Sonderforschungsbereich (SFB) 876 [49]

Verfügbarkeit von Information durch Analyse unter Ressourcenbeschränkung

#### Sonderforschungsbereich (SFB) Transregio 10 [0]

Integration von Umformen, Trennen und Fügen für die flexible Fertigung von leichten Tragwerkstrukturen